Who’ll Face Trump? Just Ask AOC

Forget polls. Forget debates.

The single most important factor in determining who will receive the Democratic nomination for President is the endorsement by freshman member of Congress Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

AOC has had the most meteoric rise of any politician in living memory. A year ago, only a handful of people had heard of her. Today, she has a social media following second only to Donald Trump and political influence that extends far beyond what one might expect from an individual that’s been in Congress just six short months.

We’re not here to talk about her positions, experience, knowledge base, or anything like that. I’m not about to present opinions, mine or anyone else’s. I’m just here to point out the facts.

The simple fact is that the energy and excitement in the Democratic Party today is all within the progressive camp. It’s below the surface. It isn’t reported in polls. It’s not obvious. But that’s where it is. And in the progressive movement, there is no one who speaks the language of social media more fluently than AOC.

I did a piece for Fox News a month ago about a relatively obscure race, the Democratic Primary for Queens, New York District Attorney, an election that took place last Tuesday, June 25th.

In the piece, I talked about how the mainstream democratic candidate, the likely favorite, was a woman named Melinda Katz, in more normal times, Katz would have won hands-down. She comes from a respected Queens’s family, has served effectively in state government for years, and is responsible for important feminist legislation in New York.

She faced six challengers, none of whom had any political experience or name recognition.

And she lost.

She lost because AOC endorsed an opponent, a public defender who had never sought election to any position prior to this race.

AOC’s endorsement was the critical factor in assembling a coalition of progressive Democratic volunteers who went and got out the vote for her.

As a result, Tiffany Cabán will be the next District Attorney in Queens, and Melinda Katz and the mainstream Democrats are left to sit there and ask themselves what just happened.

AOC just happened.

The energy of the Democratic Party, which has shifted from the moderate wing to the progressive wing, is what just happened.

The Queens DA election, which is not an unimportant post, certainly has none of the impact of a Presidential election or even a race for Congress, the Senate of Governorship.

What’s vital here is the fact that AOC endorsed a candidate no one ever heard of, and that candidate went out the won.

I said in the Fox News piece that if AOC’s endorsement proves to be the difference maker in this race, then AOC’s endorsement for Democratic Presidential nominee will be probative in 2020.

I stand by those words.

AOC is known to favor Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, because they are the two most avowedly progressive candidates in the pack.

Who knows — maybe Kamala Harris’ debate performance will have shifted the calculus. Maybe now she might contend for AOC’s endorsement.

Either way, it’s really stunning, when you step back and think about it.

In 2016, the Democratic nomination was decided practically before the first primary vote was made, by the “superdelegates”, the insiders and grandees of the Democratic establishment.

No one on the planet, except for AOC’s family, friends and coworkers, had ever heard of her.

And here we are three short years later. For the first time, the superdelegates don’t get to vote in the first round of the nominating process, which means it’s up to the people.

Which people? Primarily, the people who follow the social media feed of AOC.

Print this message and save it. It says here that whoever AOC endorses wins the nomination, because, once again, that’s where the energy is in the Democratic Party.

It’s moved from the superdelegates to a first-term Congresswoman.

And that’s the greatest sudden shift in power in American politics in my lifetime, rivaling the rise of the Tangerine Tornado himself.

Remember that I published a column, “Why Trump Can’t Lose,” all the way back in November 2015. I’m putting my reputation as a prognosticator on the line. As goes AOC, so goes the Democratic Party.